Turbo Charged Trend Following: Why Capturing the Market’s Biggest Trends Means Embracing High Volatility | Moritz Seibert & Moritz Heiden | Takahe Capital
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Single market trend has a very good year. And that is right because you've seen these major trends in like equities and gold, silver and markets that we've mentioned. It deserves to be large. It deserves to be moving the needle. It deserves a larger footprint in our portfolio because that's the outlier trade that's working. And other trades that haven't, or other markets that aren't trending, that aren't doing well, that therefore as a result aren't as large in our portfolio, why should we increase them? It's kinda like adding to losers and taking away from winners, which is the exact opposite
I am joined today by Moritz Heiden and Moritz Siebert of Takehey Capital. Moritzes, thank you both for being here today.
Thank you for having us, Max.
Thanks, Max.
So we have we've been connected for a long time going back to the Real Vision days. I've gotten to follow along with with Takehey and your growth. You guys have been relentless in trying to bring forth quantitative, diversifying strategies, really for for absolute return purposes, mostly trend following, but I know that what you do is a little bit more than trend. We'll get into those nuances. But I wanna start there. Trend following has worked this year. It worked a lot better at the beginning of the year when gold was was really trending. And it's one of the things that I have always found i
It's great when you have a lot of trends happening at the same time. You know, if we can follow trends and capture trends in a diverse set of markets and they all trend, then that's great. Then we're going to have a fantastic time with trend following strategies. But more often than not, what you see is that you have some markets trending, like a smaller subset of your portfolio, and many markets inside your portfolio, not really trending. Most of the trades that we initiate actually become small losing trades, which means we probe the market for a position either long or short, it doesn't wor
Well, the gold and silver trend feels like more of a classic building trend where it's going for months and months and months. And not that petroleum hasn't trended, but it's it's definitely been rocky with a lot of jawboning from the president. You're seeing a lot of, gapping in the market, both up and down, whether there's events that are that are causing the market to gap up. And so I'm interested in how, trend following strategies differ when you have sort of a smooth trend like gold. Not that we didn't have our gap days in gold and silver, but it just feels like oil has been much more vol
So if you have a lot of volatility without direction, without the underlying trend being honored, then you have a big risk of being kicked out of your position. We call that a whipsaw. Right? So you get into a trend, say you're buying oil, and then because of whatever announcement, this could be a it's no longer a tweet, is it? Is it's a truth. So how do you call it when when there's something untruth social? Maybe it's a truth. I don't know.
It's the truth.
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