“We’re Just Getting Started” | Bob Elliott on Why The Oil Shock Is Not Fully Priced In To Markets – Monetary Matters with Jack Farley — Transcript

“We’re Just Getting Started” | Bob Elliott on Why The Oil Shock Is Not Fully Priced In To Markets – Monetary Matters with Jack Farley — Transcript

Market views

Bullish

USO— Oil exposure recommended as portfolio hedge given elevated prices and potential for extended conflict, with positive roll yield from downward sloping futures curve.

Bearish

EQUITIES— Stocks mispricing the negative impact of oil shock on growth, with market implying unrealistic 2.5-3% real growth despite headwinds from elevated oil prices and weak labor market.
TLT— Bonds likely to sell off as inflation expectations rise due to oil shock, with Fed unable to ease policy and medium-term inflation expectations potentially taking control.

Not investment advice.