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I'm joined once again by veteran fund manager investor Eric from YWR, your weekend research. Eric, great to see you. The last time you were on monetary matters in the middle of November, You said that by the end of twenty seven, you were looking at the S and P 10,000, very lofty. We're a little bit further towards your goal. The market is up 10% since there. A lot has happened. Remind us your bull thesis, what's your thesis right now?
It's still the idea that we're in an incredible bull market that's going to exceed all of our expectations. And this was an idea I started last year in July, And I really wanted to put it out there as a counterpoint to I think this was the origin was it was post Liberation Day when we had that big sell off in April with the tariffs and the market had made it back kind of up to where it was before. And everyone was like, oh, can we hold the gains? Is it going to roll over when the tariffs finally it was all this. I mean, I'm in a lot of chats like you, right? And so I could just feel this every
And yeah, I think you opened me up to an argument last time we talked where you said if A. I. Is bigger than the .com and the Internet, then the bubble should be bigger. And the, you know, the the PE for Microsoft was, like, 70. And so then for therefore, the PE from NVIDIA should be a 100 at the peak, of course. And, you know, if NVIDIA's gonna make 2 or $300,000,000,000, that would be a market cap of, like, 20 or 30,000,000,000,000 on NVIDIA. Now I'm not saying that's gonna happen, but I think that people should think of that right tail risk as well as the the left tail risk of this evaporat
Yeah. Just to the parts companies, the Micron or memory You remember Cisco was 50 times. I think JDS Uniphase was 100 times. Earnings screen, most of those things are A lot of those, like, Keoxia, a lot of this memory stuff is like six times or eight times, and I'm like, I don't know, maybe it's an earnings bubble, but it's definitely not a valuation bubble.
Definitely not a valuation bubble. I feel like for memory, it's gotten so extreme that many people view it as unsustainable where if Apple has to raise the prices by several $100 because memory prices are so high, memory prices should go down. I don't know if they will anytime soon. They're going to keep on going up for this year.
Other point I would make for everyone is, and I'm careful with this, but just I want to provide an alternative perspective. If you say, look, we're in an inflationary environment and I've studied inflation over the histories and I know what happens during these periods. One of the things that happen are people speculate because the money is losing value quickly. And so there's a, this is what happens. So in that, if you kind of look at it and you go, wow, we're in a period of We're not even high when we're at 4% inflation, right? It's not even that high. Like maybe we're going to 8% or somethi
Maybe that's And maybe people say, Oh my God, the concentration risk in Korea is so huge as a negative. The positive framing is you want your index to be extremely concentrated in the industries that are doing well.
The is exposed to one of the most important trends in the world, and it just went up 100%. And the earnings are going up faster than the index. So I just put that piece on, you know, when you see people trading to just maybe rather than seeing it as a warning sign, it's actually a symptom of bigger thing. And so think that the 1999 was more of a cyclical thing. It kind of went up quickly and ended quickly. I think this may be like bigger trend, and th
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