Anjney Midha's Plan to Radically Lower the Price of Compute

Anjney Midha's Plan to Radically Lower the Price of Compute – Odd Lots

Mentioned

Bullish

ANTHROPIC— Anthropic is clearly the leader at the software engineering frontier with fewer than 5,000 people producing state-of-the-art models that teams like Google with 60,000 people are close to but not quite there. The models are remarkably different in meaningful ways despite appearing at parity.
OPENAI— OpenAI is the leader at the consumer chat frontier, one of multiple important AI frontiers that will be conquered.
BYTEDANCE— ByteDance is arguably at the video frontier with SeedDance, representing leadership in one of the multiple AI frontiers.
DISCORD— Discord acquired Anjney's previous company Ubiquiti Six for its distributed systems technology, demonstrating strategic value in AI infrastructure.
AMZN— Amazon provided a $4 billion compute and capital partnership with Anthropic, highlighting compute infrastructure as a key strategic investment area.
CLOUDGPU— Compute demand has increased exponentially with prices trading up 2X in six months. Long-term compute rental prices for 2026 capacity secured in January could be resold at 2X markup, indicating structural shortage and pricing power.
AILABS— There are multiple AI frontiers to be conquered rather than one winner-takes-all scenario, with different labs leading in different areas (software engineering, chat, video, etc.), suggesting a diverse ecosystem of valuable AI companies.

Bearish

NVDA— About 80 cents of every R&D dollar spent by AI labs flows to chip providers like Nvidia, creating margin pressure that is driving labs to design their own chips for unit economic independence and supply chain control.
DATACENTER— Average data center utilization in the independent ecosystem is running at less than 70%, with some facilities like Elon's Colossus Two running at less than 60% node utilization and less than 11% model flop utilization, indicating massive inefficiency and waste in current infrastructure.

Not investment advice.