How a Trade War With China Could Become a Hot War

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Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal. And

I'm Tracy Alloway.

Tracy, we recently did that episode with Andrew Bishop of Signum, for geopolitical forecasting, etcetera. And I don't know if you remember, but the last question we asked him, like, sort of sent a, shiver down my spine a little bit. Do you know that?

He was, pretty pessimistic about the outlook for an actual conflict between China and Taiwan, one that would presumably, maybe, draw in other world powers, including The US.

Yeah. I think what actually really chilled me about that was, you know, I asked him. I said, you know, what are the prospects for some sort of Chinese invasion of Taiwan with the next five years? What chilled me was how quickly he answered yes. Right? Or it was not the fact that he considered it to be a high probability. It's that he considered it to be a high probability without sort of humming and hawing about it, and I found that to be very disturbing. That