$MSFT - Microsoft has doubled revenue from $143B to $280B in five years (2020-2025), demonstrating massive real business growth that laps Wall Street forecasts year after year, unlike the speculative dot-com era.
$NVDA - Nvidia's revenue grew over 10x from $11.7B in 2019 to $130B in 2025, demonstrating extraordinary real business growth. While Grantham attributes some success to luck (chips designed for gaming happened to be perfect for AI), the company has a significant head start worth substantial value.
$AIMODELS - AI is described as a transformative technology comparable to railroads, the biggest idea in decades that will fundamentally change the world. Despite bubble concerns, the underlying technology is real and powerful.
Bearish:
$SPACEX - SpaceX at $2.7 trillion valuation on only $20B revenue represents a price-to-sales ratio over 100x, comparable to the South Sea Bubble. Grantham suggests this will be studied by market historians as an example of extreme speculation.
$EQUITIES - Current market represents one of the highest priced markets in history. Grantham identifies a key bubble indicator: speculative leaders from 2021 (meme stocks, Cathie Wood portfolio, QuantumScape) declined 35-40% while the S&P powered ahead, a pattern that has only occurred four times since 1925 (1929, 1972, 2000, 2021) and preceded major bear markets each time.
$TECH - The MAG-7 tech companies face a fundamental watershed moment: they previously dominated seven different monopolistic niches, but are now all competing aggressively in the same AI market with massive capital expenditures ($200B+ annually). This represents a shift from easy monopolies to a 'blood curdling' competitive dogfight where only one can dominate.
$ARKK - Cathie Wood's portfolio declined 35-40% from peak by end of 2021 while the broader market continued rising, representing the type of speculative leader decline that has historically preceded major bear markets.