Lots More on the Growing Risks to the US Labor Market – Odd Lots

Lots More on the Growing Risks to the US Labor Market – Odd Lots — Transcript

Market views

Bullish

LABOR— The labor market is viewed as stable with a decent equilibrium, characterized by a steady unemployment rate and respectable payroll growth. However, there are some vulnerabilities due to the low hiring rate.
TREASURIES— Treasuries are seen as a potential hedge against growth shocks, particularly when core PCE is below 3%, offering a buffer for risk assets in portfolios.
INFLATION— There's uncertainty about the impact of tariffs on inflation, with a changed psychology of price-setting post-COVID potentially leading to inflationary pressures.

Bearish

HIRINGRATE— The low hiring rate is seen as a vulnerability in the labor market, potentially leading to more significant increases in unemployment if there are negative payroll impacts.
CANADA— The Canadian economy may be vulnerable to US tariffs due to its high reliance on trade, with trade accounting for 25% of Canada's national income.

Not investment advice.