Lots More on the Worsening State of the US Labor Market

Bullish:

• $MCD - McDonald's has successfully reclaimed its value positioning through the $5 value meal program, positioning it to gain market share while competitors struggle with weak demand and price-pressured consumers

  • “McDonald's got back to where they need to be. Everybody else isn't there, and they're all trying to figure out how do we deal with this environment where demand is weak and consumers are very price pressured.”

    Conor·13:42

Bearish:

• $EMPLOY - Job growth has stalled outside of healthcare sector, contradicting the Fed's assessment and indicating broader economic weakness that markets are underappreciating

  • “I don't think jobs are really growing in the aggregate right now, certainly ex health care.”

    Conor·8:08
• $MULTIFAM - Apartment demand is weakening due to lack of population growth and job growth, creating a negative cycle for multifamily housing

  • “Q3 was pretty soft for apartments... if you don't have population growth, you don't need job growth. And if you don't have job growth, you don't need to resign an apartment lease.”

    Conor·11:00
• $SG - Sweetgreen has experienced a dramatic price decline from $45 to $6, representing one of the biggest losers in the current market environment

  • “Sweetgreen, that was a $45 stock last November. This is maybe the biggest Trump era loser. It was $44 Now it's a $6 stock.”

    Joe·14:04
• $CAVA - Cava has collapsed from $150 to $47, reflecting severe weakness in the fast-casual dining sector and broader consumer spending pressures

  • “Cava was a $150 stock also in late twenty twenty four. Now it's a $47 stock.”

    Joe·14:29
• $PE - Private equity firms face potential trouble due to poor underwriting standards and vulnerability to any economic deterioration

  • “It's just hard to think underwriting is really, really great right now. And so if if anything worsens in the economy, I assume that those guys are gonna be in trouble.”

    Conor·24:05
• $FINTECH - Fintech lenders are experiencing significant stock price declines, indicating deteriorating credit conditions across the sector

  • “you look at the stock prices of Affirm and Upwork or all these, like, AI fintech lenders are getting destroyed.”

    Conor·24:00