Rob Kaplan on How the Fed Will Think about the Tariffs

Bearish:

• $USD - Capital allocators are shifting away from dollar-denominated assets, leading to recent dollar weakness.

  • “Capital allocators, on the other hand, started the year wanting to be long the dollar, dollar denominated assets. And what's happened is they have been moving on the margin away from the dollar, and you're even seeing in the last week that some dollar weakness”

    Rob·11:07

  • “We're seeing among some asset allocators a desire to reallocate and rebalance their dollar exposures to other markets.”

    Rob·12:18
• $TREASURIES - Asset allocators are showing a desire to reallocate away from dollar exposures, which could impact Treasury markets.

  • “We're seeing among some asset allocators a desire to reallocate and rebalance their dollar exposures to other markets.”

    Rob·12:18
• $OILGAS - Drilling activity in the oil and gas sector may not increase due to lower prices, potentially impacting the industry negatively.

  • “I think we may well find over this next year that actually the level of drilling activity doesn't increase. And I think people who are drilling are gonna be more careful, particularly as the prices come down.”

    Rob·23:38
• $CONSTRUCT - The construction sector may face challenges due to potential labor shortages, particularly related to undocumented immigrants who make up a significant portion of the workforce.

  • “There are millions of undocumented immigrants in the country who are uncertain of their status and they make up half the construction workforce in a state like Texas.”

    Rob·26:12