Rob Kaplan on How the Fed Will Think about the Tariffs
Episode publishedPodcast: Odd LotsOdd Lots
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Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal. And
I'm Tracy Alloway.
Tracy, there are many dimensions of the ongoing market turbulence and trade tensions that we can't stop talking about. But a big one and in a way, it's almost like people aren't talking about it that much right now because there's so many other things top of mind. A lot of questions about how the Fed is gonna think about what's happening right here.
Right. And I know it's probably not very popular to sympathize with the central bank, but I gotta say, I would I would hate to be Jerome Powell right now because in my mind, the consensus right now seems to be that we're heading for some sort of stagflationary scenario Yeah. At least in the short to intermediate term. So higher inflation, lower growth, possibly even recession. That, to me, just seems like a nightmare scenario Yeah. For a central bank, which constantly has to balance its twin mandate of price stability and low unemployment.
It's really tricky. Right? Because we've sort of been used to environments where it's really obvious. Right? So in 2022, '20 '20 '3, it was was clear that they were missing on one specific side, which was the price. For much of, you know, post 02/2007 or 02/2008, the story was weak growth, disinflation, whatever, so poor employment. I mean, this is gonna be tricky. And, look, when we're talking about restructuring the global economy or the internal economy, these are questions that there is a limit to the degree to which monetary policy can solve them. Oh,
yeah. They
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