Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

Bearish:

• $CL - Oil prices fell to $74/barrel despite Strait of Hormuz closure that shut in 13 million barrels/day, defying predictions of $150-200/barrel. Market proved more resilient than expected due to China's 5 million barrel/day import reduction, strategic reserve releases, and oversupplied pre-crisis conditions. Contango has returned, indicating continued oversupply.

  • “right now, I think part of the reason that crude prices and time spreads are back into contango today is that we have this rising surge of exiting transits out of Hormuz that are running up against a still relatively weak import market driven first and foremost by China.”

    Rory·18:17