'The Assassin' Fahmi Quadir on How to Survive as a Short-Seller

'The Assassin' Fahmi Quadir on How to Survive as a Short-Seller – Odd Lots

Market views

Bullish

KOREA— Korea has recently enshrined shareholder rights into corporate code, creating opportunities to unlock value in companies trading below book value. New generation of chaebol owners are more globally oriented and capital-aware, with government implementing 'name and shame' policy for companies trading below book value.

Bearish

CONSUMER— Consumer is stressed with household debt at 80% of income and debt servicing at 11% of income. Younger generation facing greater unemployment and generational wealth gap. Focus on consumer-adjacent businesses with high funding needs and levered roll-ups in consumer discretionary space.
HC— Healthcare services will be important short theme due to populism, reimbursement pressures, cost of care issues, and systemic problems in US healthcare system. Many businesses depend on exploiting consumers and price gouging which won't be sustainable in populist political atmosphere.
CONSUMERFINANCE— Consumer finance stocks have done well but underlying assets and securitizations are deteriorating with lagging loss recognition, putting more pressure on already stressed consumers.
OPENAI— OpenAI IPO will be an informational catalyst that forces market to reckon with how demand has been priced in AI sector. Circular deals and capital flows have manufactured demand, similar to 1920s utility holding company structures with layers of financing and recycled cash flows.

Not investment advice.