$ENERGY - Governments and companies globally are learning to build up energy stockpiles and capacity in response to repeated supply disruptions, creating structural demand for energy infrastructure and reserves.
$CLEANENERGY - Higher oil prices are driving countries to build out clean energy capacity and increase EV adoption as an economic response to energy supply shocks.
$SEMICONDUCTORS - AI infrastructure spending is overriding traditional macro signals, with existential demand for memory chips from Korea and Taiwan regardless of currency fluctuations or interest rates.
Bearish:
$CHINA - China is doing heavy demand destruction with oil demand falling 9% (1.5 million barrels/day), potentially signaling economic weakness and reduced manufacturing activity.
$EMERGINGMARKETS - Emerging Asian markets face structural vulnerability from strong dollar and lack of stockpiles, with governments selling reserve assets including gold to buy oil, weakening fiscal positions.
$AGRICULTURE - Brewing food crisis in Southeast Asia as farmers skip planting seasons due to unaffordable diesel costs, with crops rotting in ground and fishermen keeping boats anchored, threatening food supply 6-12 months out.
$SANCTIONS - Sanctions losing effectiveness as a policy tool, with North Korea's economy doing surprisingly well despite being heavily sanctioned, calling into question their power.
$GLOBALIZATION - Structural reversal of globalization with rising trade barriers and declining trust between countries, negative for productivity and prices.