The Original Prediction Market Was Betting on the Pope

Bullish:

• $GAMBLING - There's a growing trend towards acceptance of gambling culture, suggesting potential for expansion in the gambling industry.

  • “There's generally a move towards gambling culture as a as a rule, and I think we haven't quite found the limits of where we're accept we're willing to accept it.”

    Ryan·37:26
• $PREDMKT - Prediction markets are likely to see increased discussion and potential growth across various domains, despite some limitations in closed-door decision scenarios.

  • “I think that we've you know, in 1918, part of the reason why it wasn't written into the new canon law is that it hadn't been a problem. The the papal bull had done its job in in stamping this out as an activity. And I do think there's gonna be a big social discussion of, do we want this type of market for everything?”

    Ryan·37:26

  • “For these closed door decisions where like like, supreme court decisions, people conclaves, things where the public information is much more limited than, say, an election. The prediction markets have a very mixed record of accuracy.”

    Ryan·37:26

Bearish:

• $POLLING - Traditional polling methods may be losing credibility, as evidenced by prediction markets' failure to accurately forecast the popular vote in a recent election.

  • “The prediction markets got it wrong on the popular vote. No one talks about this.”

    Joe·44:22