What 300 Years of Firewood Prices Say About the Economy

Bullish

• $ALTENERGY— Historical energy price shocks have shown that alternative fuels can be used as a hedge against home energy costs, potentially making alternative energy investments attractive.

  • “We had a massive energy price shock in the nineteen seventies. And what that clearly showed was a reversion to reliance on the fuel as a means to hedge against home energy costs.”

    Nicholas·28:56Hear it

Bearish

• $CARBON— Historical data shows that U.S. carbon intensity peaked in 1917, suggesting a long-term trend of decreasing carbon intensity in the economy. This could potentially be bearish for carbon-intensive industries.

  • “US carbon intensity defined as tons per dollar GDP peaked in 1917. And that's the year right before World War one ended and the Spanish flu outbreak happened, which were two both demand and supply shocks working in the same direction.”

    Nicholas·29:21Hear it

Not investment advice.