Why Adam Posen Thinks Inflation Will Surge Back to 4%

Why Adam Posen Thinks Inflation Will Surge Back to 4% – Odd Lots

Market views

Bullish

INFRA— Infrastructure spending will surge as countries build new defense capabilities and reduce dependence on US systems, particularly in Europe and Canada.
GOOGL— Google's massive AI infrastructure spending is self-financed and shows strong commitment to AI leadership, with ability to issue 100-year bonds demonstrating financial strength.
AMZN— Amazon's AI infrastructure spending is accelerating significantly with eye-watering capex numbers that will move GDP.
AIMODELS— AI will drive significant productivity growth and real income gains in the next couple years as businesses figure out how to implement the technology.

Bearish

TRADFI— Traditional investment outside of AI is weak despite favorable conditions, suggesting structural headwinds from policy uncertainty.
HOUSING— Housing market continues to be soft despite lower real mortgage rates, indicating persistent weakness.

Not investment advice.