America’s Economy Is Entering a New Era — ft. Noah Smith

America’s Economy Is Entering a New Era — ft. Noah Smith – Prof G Markets

Market views

Bullish

ANTHROPIC— Anthropic is expected to achieve operating profitability in 2025 despite massive growth and investment, showing strong unit economics. Usage is exploding and profitability is improving rapidly, suggesting the business model is working.
AIMODELS— AI is already showing productivity acceleration without job destruction, better than expected outcomes. Massive surge in small business formation and dynamism suggests AI is creating value without the feared negative employment effects.

Bearish

OPENAI— Risk of demand collapse if companies realize they're not building profitable software with AI tokens. Current demand may be artificial due to 'token maxing' metrics rather than real ROI, and business model sustainability is questionable at actual costs.
GOOGL— Google may be falling behind in AI race and being outcompeted by Chinese models with subsidized inference. As a slightly lower tier player behind frontier models, Google faces competitive pressure from both US leaders and subsidized Chinese alternatives.

Not investment advice.