Here's What The Jobs Report Isn’t Telling You
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Show goes on. The person never watched the show sell. Welcome to Prophecy Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is August 11. Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices slipped on a lack of progress in Iran. Brent crude climbed. Treasury yields increased. Intel shares fell 4% after the company announced a $15,000,000,000 common stock offering to fund its AI efforts. And finally, NVIDIA shares fell nearly 3% on news that the company is partnering with Wall Street for a $500,000,000,000 AI infrastructure financing package. Okay. What else is happening? The July jobs report came in much w
Oh, it's just bad. I don't think it's I don't there's not a lot of green shoots in this report. We lost jobs and people left the labor force, so there's not a ton of bright lines to draw there. You know, this is this has been such an incredible economy over the past year and a half, and I've described it as the closest that a $30,000,000,000,000 economy could be to standing still. And, you know, we we had a really dismal kind of back half of last year that started to look a little better in the front half of this one, but we've never seen consistent strength, consistent growth, and that has co
What would you say to people who say, well, GDP growth is growing or the the stock market is hitting all time highs, both of which are true on those kind of surface level measures? It seems like things are going great. Is is the place that we should really be looking at should we really be looking at the jobs numbers? I mean, where is the real story being told in your view?
Alright. 70% of The US economy is the or 60 to 70% of The US economy, depending on the quarter and the year, is the consumption of US households, how much they can afford to spend. And the remaining, you know, 20 or 30 to 40% can be the investment of businesses, the the, you know, net exports, things that are in some ways a little bit more volatile and manipulable. You know, we've had months where or quarters where GDP, you know, had a gangbusters headline number, but it was because of, like, very odd behavior related to planning for tariffs and stocking up on inventories. So I look at the con
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