Michael Burry Says This Is The Top — Is It?

NVDA— Michael Burry is betting against NVIDIA, believing we are near a major top and could see a 1987-type crash. Steve Eisman disagrees with this timing but acknowledges the AI story has become more complicated.

MU— Michael Burry is maintaining short positions against Micron as part of his broader bearish bet on the semiconductor sector.

TSLA— Michael Burry is maintaining short positions against Tesla as part of his bearish view on major tech stocks.

PLTR— Michael Burry is maintaining short positions against Palantir as part of his bearish view on major tech stocks.

META— Steve Eisman found Meta's recent earnings 'hellacious' and 'awful', citing 55% expense growth versus 28% revenue growth, essentially no free cash flow ($785M), and rising depreciation costs from AI chip investments that will weigh on earnings for years.

OPENAI— Steve Eisman identifies a potential 'chink in the armor' where a price war from Chinese models could cause OpenAI to get in 'big trouble', which would unwind the AI trade. Ed notes OpenAI lost $21 billion last year and is dependent on Big Tech subsidies. Bloomberg reports 70% of Microsoft's AI revenue comes from OpenAI, creating systemic dependency risk.

ANTHROPIC— Steve Eisman warns that if Anthropic gets in trouble from a price war with Chinese models, it would unwind the AI trade. Ed estimates Anthropic lost $11 billion last year and is dependent on Big Tech subsidies. The company represents 75% of Amazon's AI revenue and significant portions of Google's cloud revenue.

MSFT— Microsoft has shifted from throwing off cash 'like water' to negative cash flow due to massive AI capital intensity. Bloomberg reports 70% of Microsoft's AI revenue comes from OpenAI, creating dangerous dependency on a company losing $21 billion annually.

GOOGL— Google has shifted from throwing off cash 'like water' to negative cash flow due to massive AI capital intensity. UBS estimates 30% of Google's cloud revenue (roughly 75% of AI-specific revenue) comes from OpenAI and Anthropic. Additionally, Google shares fell 4% on news of DeepMind leadership changes.

AMZN— Amazon has shifted from throwing off cash 'like water' to negative cash flow, spending $225 billion on CapEx this year. Barclays estimates 75% of Amazon's AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic, creating dangerous dependency on companies losing billions annually.

AILABS— Steve Eisman identifies structural weakness in the LLM/Agentic AI business: no moats, customers switching between models, and potential price war from cheaper Chinese open models. This lack of defensibility threatens the entire AI ecosystem.

Michael Burry Says This Is The Top — Is It?

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