SpaceX Is Down 40% — How Low Can It Go?
Episode publishedPodcast: Prof G MarketsProf G Markets
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Welcome to Prophecy Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is July 16. Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices rose after another inflation reading from the producer price index came in cooler than expected. Treasury yields fell. Brent crude had another volatile day as The US continued to strike Iran. And finally, stock hit an all time high after announcing it will integrate Alibaba's Quen model into Apple intelligence in China. Okay. What else is happening? The largest IPO in history is officially underwater. Yesterday, SpaceX fell below its 135 IPO price for the first time, touchin
The $62 is a result of three scenarios, you know, a a bull case, a medium case, and a bear case, and some probabilities that we assign to those. Only in the bull case do you get into the 130, 150, $160 range. The problem is that depends on so many things going right that we think there's only a 7% chance of that happening. So that's where you get to a weighted average fair value of 62. You know, the medium case on its own is about $71 a share. So I think we're in the same camp, if you will, thinking about halfsies valuation wise.
Just looking at what's happened so far. So the stock, I mean, obviously, it popped immediately as I thought it would. It continued to rise, and now it's it's coming down. I mean, it's been pretty quick the way this has happened, especially considering the fact that it joined the Nasdaq 100 so recently. What do you make of how quickly it has started to drop back down?
I think it's a really good point. I think there's two two kind of buckets that I would wanna point out there. First of all, maybe working backwards. It's quick, I think, partly because the the the flow is still so small, only four ish percent of
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