The Next Era of Warfare is Here

The Next Era of Warfare is Here – Prof G Markets

Market views

Bullish

ANDURIL— Anduril is experiencing rapid revenue growth (from $2.2B to targeting $4.3B, nearly doubling) driven by global instability and increased defense spending. The company has won major contracts against legacy defense contractors (Lockheed, Northrop, Boeing) and is scaling production with a strong execution track record.
DEFENSETECH— Defense tech sector is experiencing record VC funding ($19.8B in Q1) and a proposed 44% increase in US defense budget to $1.5T, driven by global instability, technology shifts (drones, AI), and the need to counter sophisticated adversaries like China. Western nations are ramping defense spending after decades of underinvestment.
AUTONOMY— Autonomous weapons systems and AI-powered defense technology represent a major technological shift in warfare. The US government is investing heavily in making weapons more precise and discriminating using AI, with clear policy frameworks supporting responsible development of autonomous systems within bounded parameters.
DRONES— Drone technology has fundamentally changed warfare dynamics, making traditional military invasions extremely costly (requiring 100:1 advantage vs historical 3:1) and shifting focus to long-range strike capabilities. Counter-drone technology and autonomous drone systems are critical defense investments.

Bearish

LMT— Legacy defense contractors like Lockheed Martin are losing major contracts to new defense tech startups like Anduril, which beat them on the loyal wingman fighter jet program. The legacy defense industrial base faces production challenges and is being disrupted by software-first, AI-powered approaches.
NOC— Northrop Grumman is among the legacy defense contractors being disrupted by new defense tech companies. They lost the loyal wingman competition to Anduril and face challenges from software-first approaches and AI-powered systems that are proving superior in modern warfare applications.
BA— Boeing lost the loyal wingman fighter jet competition to Anduril and is part of the legacy defense establishment being disrupted by new software-first, AI-powered defense tech companies. The company faces challenges adapting to modern warfare requirements.

Not investment advice.