$GOLD - Gold is part of a crisis protection program that provides counter-cyclical portfolio insurance alongside TIPS and long volatility exposure
$QUANT - Systematic quantitative trading with many diversified bets across different assets provides superior risk-adjusted returns compared to discretionary macro approaches
$TECH - Big tech is the sole driver supporting equity markets while other sectors show weakness, making it the only component floating the market
Bearish:
$MACRO - Long-term fundamental macro research is almost entirely useless for portfolio decisions, as even perfect one-year forward growth and inflation forecasts can't outperform beta
$LEI - Traditional economic indicators like the Conference Board LEI are outdated, designed for a 1980s manufacturing economy, and have incorrectly signaled recession since 2022
$BONDS - Bonds have shown extreme short-term mean reversion since 2022 due to conflicting Fed mandates between employment weakness and inflation persistence
$JOBS - Labor market is heading south with employment growth potentially contracting meaningfully while output and spending continue unaffected, creating an unprecedented divergence that must resolve
$CYCLICALS - A market-neutral strategy of going long tech indexes while shorting the most cyclical parts of the economy represents one of the best plays based on deteriorating earnings momentum in cyclical sectors