Aahan Menon: Systematic Macro in a Shifting Economy: Signals Over Stories
Episode publishedPodcast: Resolve Riffs Investment Podca...Resolve Riffs Investment Podcast
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I started my career at a macro hedge fund. And, you know, one thing that, like, discretionary macro style investing always leads to is one view expressed a lot of across a lot of things. But if that view is wrong, you're screwed.
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All right, welcome to Resolve Rifts. And we have with us today, Ahan Menon from Prometheus Macro. He's everywhere and anywhere on Substack and Twitter and whatnot. And he's decided that he's going to give away the macro research and keep the portfolio edge. Ahan, what's going on with that, buddy? Tell us more. What made you come to that decision?
Yeah. Well, first off, great to be on. Great to see you guys. It's my first time chatting with Richard, so hey. Yeah. It's me finally. Been I've been listening to you guys on riffs all the time, so I'm glad we're finally chatting. Well, when it comes to making the macro research free, I think there's a slogan that nice nicely kinda captures it all, which is pay for portfolios, don't pay for content. Right? And the content is an air quotes. Right? And the the idea over there is super simple. It's basically that most long term fundamental macro research is almost entirely useless for making any
And so if you want the narrative, where do they sign up for that? That's on your Substack and you've got another x.
Right? Prometheus-macro.com. You wanna know anything about the economy, what's happening in growth, what's happening in inflation, you know, like, what are the odds for this upcoming CPI? We've done stuff like that. You know? All of that type of stuff, you shouldn't have to pay for in my view. It's 2025. You might have had to pay for that in the eighties when it was tough to get data and test stuff and all that. Today's day and age, all that stuff should be free and that's why we made it free.
So, Farib, I think you're saying what everyone or many people have been afraid to say, and you're just stating it as it is and factually. And as humans, we do love narrative though, to be fair. Anyway, go ahead, Richard. What were you going to say?
Yeah, no, I was trying to understand a little bit within your framework. How are you defining long term market variables and what is the timeframe that you actually think is relevant? Because I remember over the years having come up, I mean, listening to different commentators and doing some research, three to six months on the short end, maybe eighteen to twenty four months would probably be the most that markets are looking forward. It seems like in this day and age with so much disruption, it's probably even shorter than that. Trying to understand what to you defines long term
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