[Emergency Episode] Moonshot’s Kimi K3 has Arrived! China has a Frontier Model – SemiAnalysis Weekly

[Emergency Episode] Moonshot’s Kimi K3 has Arrived! China has a Frontier Model – SemiAnalysis Weekly — Transcript

Market views

Bullish

ANTHROPIC— Anthropic has mind-boggling margins on API token sales, potentially better than SaaS businesses. If Kimi K3 at similar size isn't at negative margins at $3.15 per million tokens, and Anthropic charges $10-50 per million tokens for similar-sized models, this reveals exceptional profitability.
OPENAI— OpenAI's API token business has exceptional margins similar to Anthropic. Despite competition from open-source models, new use case discovery and broader adoption will drive continued ARR growth without deceleration.
AILABS— AI labs have massive untapped market potential with exponential growth ahead. Current power users represent top 1% of adoption, with 10-100x more usage possible as technology spreads to mainstream users discovering new use cases.

Bearish

GOOGL— Google has fallen out of the top three AI companies, now behind Chinese competitors like Moonshot. Google should feel embarrassed that they're no longer competitive at the frontier despite being perceived as a leader as recently as late 2024.

Not investment advice.