Ep. 022 - Market Drawdown, Historic Bubbles, Funding The Buildout, AI Politics (Doug is Back)
Episode publishedPodcast: SemiAnalysis WeeklySemiAnalysis Weekly
Transcript preview
Preview only
Welcome to the new semi analysis uniform. This is what we wear every day in the New York City office. I come in, I clock in, I put on the Jensen rapture. They're just apparently, they're sold out or sold out everywhere in Taiwan, But it's just like, come on, you got them in this.
Shout out Timothy. Hello, everyone. Welcome back to Semi Analysis Weekly. I am joined this week by Doug O'Laughlin, who for some reason hasn't been on the podcast for a little while. Doug, what's going on, man?
I thought I wasn't allowed to come on anymore, but apparently, that was that was never the case. I don't know. I just been I've been doing a lot of things here at Semi Analysis. It and it's been, you know, it's been a crazy season. And yeah. So
Dark has been busy, but he's back. Yeah. Today, we're gonna talk a little bit about the drawdown that's going on in stocks right now. Memory, optics, lots of AI names are down. We're gonna either fan the flames or provide people with some Soothing positivity TBD on that one. And we're gonna basically juxtapose that drawdown with some of what's going on in the labs. Like Sam Altman warning staff that their new pre trained Doug is gonna be RSI in six months. I'm just continuing to build a ton of models. I mean, Anthropic as well. Rumors of new versions of their models coming out. We saw Opus fiv
So let's just talk about so, I mean, okay. I've been doing this I've been doing this spiel just a wee bit. So pretty much up until very recently, like, let's say by June 30, at the end of q two, it was pretty much the best best performance in semiconductor history, and we've had a little bit of an unwind since then. And what you can say is a lot of it you can argue is, quote, unquote, technical, meaning there's, like, reasons because of factors and people may be over levered and something like that. But the reality is it's like what goes up really, really fast often has a little bit of gravity
When was this?
It was in the it was in the late eighties.
Okay. So are you comparing the current situation in Korea to the late eighties in Taiwan or vibes are similar?
Vibes are similar. The bubble in Taiwan is is truly historic. Like, I just don't think anything I don't know if if okay. Just put it this way. If we were to hit that bubble in Korea today, I think Korea stock market would be like worth 15 to 20 times more. Like it was just it's such a crazy bubble. I don't think we should ever be able to possibly recreate that. Like it just it just shouldn't happen like if they can go off, I guess. But I do think some of the lessons learned and some of the behaviors that happened during that bubble are often in indicative of this one. Yeah. I'm not gonna call
Keep exploring with a free account.
A free account preserves the short preview. Upgrade to Pro for the full transcript and episode chat.