Ep. 024 - SpaceX's 10GW Plan Drives $300B ARR by 2027 (Datacenter, Energy) | Reyk Knuhtsen, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Jordan Nanos

Ep. 024 - SpaceX's 10GW Plan Drives $300B ARR by 2027 (Datacenter, Energy) | Reyk Knuhtsen, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Jordan Nanos – SemiAnalysis Weekly

Market views

Bullish

NVDA— SpaceX committed to exclusive use of Nvidia GPUs for their 10 gigawatt buildout, calling them 'the world's best hardware.' Nvidia is positioned to provide vendor financing and backstop deals to lock in customers as competition from Google/TPU intensifies.
MSFT— Microsoft has access to OpenAI's frontier models and can monetize at $100M per megawatt rates, but faces capacity gaps from their 2024-2025 datacenter pause. They're aggressively signing offtake deals and are the most likely customer for SpaceX's premium compute capacity.
AILABS— AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic) are achieving 85% gross margins and adding $20B+ ARR per month by selling tokens at $100M per megawatt annually. The economics are so compelling they will buy any compute available and continue rapid revenue acceleration.
DATACENTER— Massive structural shortage in datacenter capacity as demand grows faster than supply. SpaceX can command 4x premium pricing ($48M vs $12M per megawatt) for immediate availability with 90-day cancellation terms, creating unprecedented margins.

Bearish

GOOGL— Google is losing top AI talent (Jeff Dean, Dave Silver, Jon Jumper) who are raising external capital instead of receiving internal funding. Despite $300B+ CapEx, they appear unable to compete at the frontier in coding, which may be the path to AGI.

Not investment advice.

Mentioned

Market views