Emil Michael: Iran, Anthropic and the Future of AI at the Pentagon

Bullish:

• $GOOGL - Google has transformed from refusing defense work in 2018 to becoming one of the government's best partners, positioning them well for defense AI contracts.

  • “Now Google is a great partner. And so I'd hope some of the newer companies would learn from what Google did, which is they didn't want to serve the government because they had employee mob issues, but now they're one of the government's best partners.”

    Emil·18:14
• $DEFENSEAI - Massive expansion in defense AI adoption with 1.2 million DoD personnel now using AI (up from 80,000), creating significant opportunity for defense tech companies.

  • “Within ninety days, 1,200,000 of the department's 3,000,000 personnel had used some form of AI. When he started, that number was 80,000.”

    Announcer·1:09

  • “in ninety days, I think we've had 1,200,000 of the 3,000,000 people at the department use some form of AI. That number was 80,000 before I started.”

    Emil·7:28

Bearish:

• $ANTHROPIC - Anthropic's AI models have restrictive terms that could shut off mid-operation in military use cases, creating vendor lock-in issues and limiting their defense market potential.

  • “Things like you couldn't move a satellite, you couldn't plan an operation, couldn't plan it, not use AI to execute it, if it would potentially lead to a kinetic strike or something. Dozens of restrictions, and yet these AI sort of models were baked into some of the most sensitive and important places in the US military where we do exercise combat power.”

    Emil·10:15

  • “It was a vendor lock situation with terms that, in theory, if the model was designed to turn off when you violated the terms, could just stop in the middle of an operation and put lives at risk.”

    Emil·10:58