Why Physical AI Is the Next Frontier | Applied Intuition

Why Physical AI Is the Next Frontier | Applied Intuition – The a16z Show

Market views

Bullish

TSLA— Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology has reached a significant milestone with high miles per disengagement and is approaching ubiquity in personally owned vehicles by 2028-2030, with the technology becoming standard and potentially free in most vehicles by the early 2030s.
PHYSICALAI— Physical AI companies that impact the physical world through autonomous systems in automotive, defense, construction, mining, and agriculture are positioned to become larger than digital AI companies, with massive productivity unlocks and cost reductions across multiple sectors.
AUTONOMOUSTRUCKS— Autonomous trucking is already deployed commercially in multiple countries with strong economic drivers including severe labor shortages, demographic challenges, and pure calculator-based ROI, with driver-out goals achievable within a few years.
ROBOTAXIS— Robotaxis will become routine in 200 major US cities by 2028-2030, with the technology already proven and the main constraints being cost optimization and geographic expansion rather than technical breakthroughs.
HUMANOIDS— Humanoid robots for housekeeping and entertainment represent killer applications for physical AI, with the Dana platform enabling high school students to develop autonomous systems and dramatically lowering barriers to entry.

Bearish

UBER— Uber faces existential threat from autonomous robotaxis which are already eating into ride-sharing market share, with Waymo and other autonomous services presenting significant competitive pressure.
TRUCKING— Traditional trucking jobs face structural decline due to severe labor shortages (nobody wants to be a truck driver), poor working conditions, 10-year lower life expectancy, and imminent automation with driver-out goals within a few years.

Not investment advice.