$CPER - Long-term copper supply deficit driven by AI, EVs, data centers, and electrification. Takes 10-15 years to bring new supply online, creating structural shortage despite short-term uncertainty.
$GLD - Central bank buying at record levels with no G20 economies stopping purchases. Structural tailwinds remain despite recent price volatility.
$USO - Oil likely to average around $80/barrel over next year with floor around $70 as infrastructure is repaired and inventories replenished. OPEC lacks capability to meet raised output targets due to shut-in production.
$UNG - US natural gas becoming less weather-driven and more demand-driven due to LNG exports and AI data center buildout. Qatar facility damage removes 4% of global LNG supply for years, adding premium.
$URA - Nuclear power gaining public acceptance as data center energy needs grow. Uranium benefits as nuclear becomes larger component of energy infrastructure over next 5-10 years.
$LIT - Lithium up 45-55% this year, one of best performing commodities. Critical for EV and energy storage buildout.
$COMMODITIES - New commodity cycle underway driven by China growth, US innovation, supply chain disruptions, and deglobalization. Broad commodities fund has beaten S&P and Nasdaq over last 5 years.
Bearish:
$AIINFRA - AI infrastructure buildout requires $4 trillion over next decade but needs $800B/year in fresh profit (1/3 of all S&P earnings) to justify spend. Hyperscalers spending all cash flow on CapEx with revenue not keeping pace - echoes dot-com overcapacity.
$GOOGL - Q1 2026 earnings growth driven by $69B in non-operating income from marking up investments in companies like Anthropic - non-cash paper profits from circularity, not real business performance.
$AMZN - Q1 2026 earnings growth driven by $69B in non-operating income from marking up investments in companies like Anthropic - non-cash paper profits from circularity, not real business performance.
$NVDA - Q1 2026 earnings growth driven by $69B in non-operating income from marking up investments in companies like Anthropic - non-cash paper profits from circularity, not real business performance.