What 250 Years of Market Data Actually Tells Us | Meb Faber

What 250 Years of Market Data Actually Tells Us | Meb Faber – The Acquirers Podcast

Market views

Bullish

GLD— Gold has had a strong run recently and managed futures funds have been successfully long gold/silver as an inflation hedge and alternative asset exposure that traditional portfolios lack.
SMALLCAP— Small cap value stocks have started to pick up this year after years of underperformance, with wide valuation spreads suggesting potential for rotation and outperformance.
INTL— International and emerging market stocks have had monster years in 2023-2024, with value ex-US performing particularly well and offering better valuations than expensive US markets.
TYLD— T-bills currently offer attractive risk-free returns while risky bond spreads remain too narrow to compensate for risk, making cash/T-bills the preferred fixed income allocation.
MANAGEDFUTURES— Managed futures/trend following strategies rebounded strongly in 2024 after a difficult 2023, up around 20%, providing diversification and exposure to assets traditional portfolios don't hold.

Bearish

SPY— The S&P 500 is expensive across any metric with expectations for meager returns over the next 1-7 years, similar to the 2000-2003 period, though there's no ceiling on how high valuations could go in the near term.
CORPORATEBONDS— Corporate and junk bonds are at some of the lowest spreads ever (one percentile), not compensating investors for risk versus T-bills, and will likely blow out significantly in the next crisis.
LONGBONDS— Long duration bonds have been down 50% and managed futures funds have profitably been short fixed income, a position that traditional portfolios never hold.

Not investment advice.