Nic Carter: Quantum Threatens $600B of Bitcoin

Bullish:

• $MSFT - Microsoft likely at the forefront of quantum computing development with potential to requisition Bitcoin's Satoshi coins at government behest, creating massive value capture opportunity.

  • “a private firm at the behest of the US government requisitions the coins and gives them to the US government. So like IBM, Microsoft, Google.”

    Nic·40:58

  • “I think The US is probably the bleeding edge of quantum development. I know that there are efforts underway to do this to build a at scale quantum computer within the next five years.”

    Nic·41:28

  • “if Microsoft or IBM gets $1,020,000,000,000, like not the end of the world. No. They kind of a lot of they deserve that as all.”

    Tommy·1:05:25
• $IBM - IBM positioned as a leading quantum computing developer that could capture significant value from breaking Bitcoin's cryptography and requisitioning coins.

  • “let's say IBM builds a quantum computer that has 2,000 logical qubits. That's like roughly the amount that we think is needed.”

    Nic·46:20

  • “they'll probably tell IBM or whoever, would you just steal the Bitcoins too? Like on the downtime? Like on the weekends?”

    Nic·48:03

  • “This quantum was expensive to build in the first place. So Bitcoin is accelerating the development of quantum for sure. It's happening today.”

    Nic·1:05:35
• $QUANTUM - Quantum computing sector seeing massive investment influx with $10 billion deployed in 2025, highest year in history, as the technology approaches practical viability.

  • “This was 2025 was the highest year of quantum computing investing in history by far. Typical rates like 1 or $2,000,000,000.”

    Nic·8:32

  • “There are many hundreds of millions of dollars that have been deployed with this belief in mind.”

    Nic·7:55

  • “I would say the consensus among physicists is this will happen. And not in thirty years, but maybe in ten, maybe in fifteen years, but maybe shorter.”

    Nic·14:23
• $SOL - Solana has more flexible governance structure than Bitcoin, making it better positioned to adapt to quantum threats with faster upgrade cycles.

  • “Solana, I don't even know if they tell people. Know, like Upgrade your node. Yeah. Just like, alright. Do it.”

    Nic·52:37

  • “those guys have people that are in charge basically, and they can say okay, well Quantum actually is a little concerning, Vitalik already agreed, Solana Foundation already started piloting”

    Nic·53:00

  • “It just seems like there'll be a value flow from Bitcoin to Solana and ETH considering they have credible paths to address it.”

    Tommy·53:10

Bearish:

• $BTC - Bitcoin faces existential threat from quantum computing with 70-80% chance of cryptographic break by 2035, while core developers remain unprepared and in denial.

  • “By 2035? Yeah. 70 to 80%. Wow. Maybe higher.”

    Nic·7:33

  • “if quantum happens and Bitcoin's not prepared, it's like the end of Bitcoin, basically.”

    Nic·20:41

  • “One out of 100. Wow. Yeah. You you fail at 50%. Right? Anything below that is an f.”

    Nic·34:43

  • “I would sell it if with some within the next year, the Bitcoin developer community was not sufficiently mobilized.”

    Nic·7:15

  • “I think Quantum is weighing on the price.”

    Nic·53:47
• $BITCOINDEV - Bitcoin developer community critically unprepared for quantum threat, scoring 1/100 on preparedness with no meaningful action being taken despite existential risk.

  • “They mostly don't think it's real or they won't acknowledge that it's real.”

    Nic·34:56

  • “this is by far the biggest problem Bitcoin's ever faced ever by 10 orders of magnitude. Like, compare like Segwent or Tapf to this. Completely irrelevant nonsense.”

    Nic·33:24

  • “The developer is gonna keep grumbling, and they're gonna keep doing nothing, and criticizing me”

    Nic·1:05:52

  • “Bitcoin developers making Taproot not quantum resistant is the craziest thing that's ever happened.”

    Nic·25:17