Proph3t: Exploring the Future of Markets-Driven Governance
Episode publishedPodcast: The Delphi PodcastThe Delphi Podcast
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You're now plugged in to the Delphi podcast. Alright. Welcome to the Delphi podcast. I'm Michael, researcher at Delphi, and I will be your host for today. I'm joined by Prophet, who is the founder of MetaDAO. Welcome, Prophet. Thanks
for having me, Michael.
Of course. Super super excited for this conversation. I guess before we dive in to MetaDAO, which, which I'm excited to talk about, I kind of wanted to start with, high level, I guess. The core idea behind MetaDAO in my understanding is is kind of based on, like, markets being efficient, markets being like a a useful tool, to make decisions. And, you know, one maybe the first, like, use case that we've seen from mark like, or that that's tested the efficiency of markets in crypto, is prediction markets. And I've noticed recently that you've you've been talking a lot about, Permission Markets r
Yeah. I guess, in terms of do people overestimate or underestimate the efficacy of markets? I think they estimate. I think, like, the consensus here is pretty much right, which is that markets are not perfect, but they are the best tool that we have of aggregating information. So they're better than polls, they're better than your parents just like saying who they think is going to win. They're like better than any other tool that we have. And yeah, I think that's right. And I think that holds up with the data. So like there have been studies, there's a study that went from 1988 to 2004. And y
What do you make of, like, the recent move that we've seen, specifically related to, like, the presidential election market? Trump has moved up pretty significantly on polly market. And then I think just today, we're recording this on October 10th. It Trump eclipsed, Kamala on Predicta as well as CallShe, I believe. Do you like, are are kind of, like, small moves in either direction? Like, are are these markets efficient enough to, like, price that? Because obviously, there's been, like, a a lot of debate that's kind of erupted on the timeline around these these kind of moves recently. Yes.
There has been a lot of debate. I mean, yeah, I think it's possible that, well, yeah, I guess so one thing that some people say, like Paul Graham even said this on Twitter is, Oh, the prediction market has moved, but the polls haven't moved. So like clearly there's an arbitrage here, like clearly this, he didn't explicitly say manipulation, other people have explicitly said manipulation. And I don't think that's true at all, because markets are, like one possible explanation of this is that the market is pricing a future event that will affect the polls. So I would guess that in this case, the
One of the things that's been interesting for me is, yeah, I I recently wrote, a big piece on prediction markets and Futarchy MetaDAO. And I talked to a lot of people internally at Delphi and then just within crypto. And one of the bigger surprises for me in talking, you know, with people about kind of both of these technologies, prediction markets and Futarchy, is there are a lot of people within crypto that that just I I don't know how else to say this, but, like, don't believe in markets almost or or almost, like, in disbelief that markets can be, like, a valuable source of information, whi
Yes. I do think there are some people who just don't believe in the market. Yeah, I mean, that's definitely true. It's probably truer in the Ethereum ecosystem than it is in the Solana ecosystem, which is why it's kind of nice that MetaDAO is in Solana. But yeah, there are definitely some people who just don't believe that the market is like a g
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