Crypto Crossroads: ETFs, Politics, and Prediction Markets

Speaker 0: Hi, everyone, and welcome to another episode of The Hivemind. We're back this week after the the lunatics took control of the asylum. Last week, we had, Duncan on a caffeine binge going, going crazy with this bull with this ton of bull posting. But, yeah, it was a high energy podcast for sure. We're back this week talking about ETF, markets generally, prediction markets, and and a bunch of other stuff.

So, yeah, same cast as always. It's Duncan, Flood Capital, Ceterus, head of research, and Jan, managing partner at Delphi Ventures, and myself. So who wants to kick us off on the EPTF? I mean, I feel like we've kinda discussed everyone has discussed this to death, but there's not that much that happened in the last week since our since our last part. So I feel feel like maybe starting off there.

Obviously, for some context, I guess, Kang, who in general is not someone

Speaker 1: you wanna

Speaker 0: fade, came out pretty bearish on the on the ETF and and kind of crypto generally, after being pretty bullish a few months before this meme kind of super cycle ESYS. There's a few other, I think, good traders that that that came up bearish, but there's also some some smart minds on the other side. So maybe to start with, can go around the horn and see how how everyone's feeling about ETH right here and and Marcus generally leading up to the ETF.

Speaker 2: Yeah. So, I mean, ETH launch got delayed to what is currently set to be end of July launch, there's definitely mixed feelings about what the flows will look like. I think initially, they will be pretty strong just as, you know, people are are converting their spot holdings into ETF holdings similar to what happened on Bitcoin. So you can expect some decent flows, early on, but those aren't necessarily purchases, but rather just kind of conversions. And so it's it's not necessarily positive flow from a buying perspective, but just just from ETF AUM perspective.

You know, 1 of the initial kind of bearish concerns around the timing of the ETF launch was that it was too soon relative to the to the BTC 1. And so that didn't allow for enough time for, you know, BTC to grow and then the marketing engines to turn on for ETH. And and it was also just, you know, you wanted that catalyst pushed out further, something to look forward to rather than 1 that that materialized a lot sooner. So, you know, in in that context, I think having it pushed back a bit, even though it's only a a few weeks, roughly a month is is, I think, bullish overall because it it it does

That's what part of what's being priced in, and then then I think, you know, just there's been a a gradual decline in kind of global liquidity, and and that's probably 1 of the other big drivers of of, BTC decline. And if you look throughout the year, you know, we're all we're all bullish on the space in the long run, and and so it's it if you think about what will be the the future kind of catalyst you have, if if you assume, you know, a high probability that that Trump wins, that that'll certainly be bullish. I think, you know, he he's speaking at that Bitcoin conference along with Vivek and

So if you think about the setup leading into it, you have AAA lull from here until then. And then end of July, I think, has a a few kind of really bullish setups, and and so it's kind of just