#2311 - Jeremie & Edouard Harris
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So if there's a doomsday clock for AI and where where we're fucked, what what what time is it? If midnight is, we're fucked.
We're getting right into it. You're you're
not even gonna ask us what we had for breakfast. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. Jesus Christ. Let's
get freaked out.
Well, okay. So so there's one, without speaking to, like, the fucking doomsday dimension right out the gate, there's a question about, like, where are we at in terms of AI capabilities right now, and what do those timelines look like? Right. There's a bunch of disagreement. One of the most concrete pieces of evidence that we have recently came out of a a lab, an an AI kind of evaluation lab called METER. And they put together this this test. Basically, it's like, you ask the question, pick a task that takes a certain amount of time, like an hour. It takes like a human a certain amount of time.
like, you you had tasks that you could do, you know, a person does in five minutes, like, you know, ordering an Uber Eats or, like, something that takes, like, fifteen minutes, like, maybe booking a flight or something like that. And it's a question of, like, how much can these AI agents do? Right? Like, from five minutes to fifteen minutes to thirty minutes. And in some of these spaces, like, research software engineering. Mhmm. And it's getting further and further and further and doubling, it looks like, every four months. So it's like
If you if you extrapolate that, you basically get to task to take a month to complete. Like, by 2027, task that take an AI researcher a month to complete these systems will be completing with, like, a 50% success rate. So
you'll be able to have an AI on your show and ask it what the doomsday clock is like by then. Probably
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