35 Years of Memos

Bullish:

• $CREDIT - Credit markets now offer attractive opportunities after years of challenging conditions due to the Fed raising rates to 5.25-5.5%, creating a fundamental shift from the difficult 2009-2021 period when rates were near zero

  • “If you go back three and a half years to the '22, high yield bonds yielded four. That's not a very big number. So our strategies were not that helpful to them, and we went through a very quiet period.”

    Howard·26:00

Bearish:

• $PE - Private equity strategies may underperform going forward as they were invented during and benefited from a unique 40-year period of declining rates that won't repeat in the new rate environment

  • “Strategies like private equity were invented during that period, so it shouldn't come as a surprise that they worked very well. But if the environment's gonna be different, maybe different things will work better.”

    Howard·23:50