Nobody Knows (Yet Again)

Bullish:

• $DISTRESSED - Anticipating increased distress and demand for bespoke capital solutions, leading to faster investment in opportunistic debt funds.

  • “At the same time, we anticipate a higher incidence of distress and increased demand for bespoke capital solutions, meaning we're likely to invest our latest opportunistic debt fund faster than otherwise would have been the case.”

    Howard·32:08
• $INFLATION - Tariffs are expected to raise prices across imported goods and US-made goods with imported components, suggesting a need for inflation hedges.

  • “There is little doubt that the tariffs will raise prices. Tariffs are taxes on imports, and someone has to pay them. This is true in the case of goods brought in from abroad, as well as goods made in The US that incorporate imported materials or components.”

    Howard·11:02

Bearish:

• $SPY - Potential recession, higher inflation, and economic dislocation due to Trump's tariffs could negatively impact US stocks.

  • “Just a couple of months ago, The US economy was performing well. The outlook was positive. The stock market was at an all time high, and there was much talk about American exceptionalism. Now if Trump's tariffs are put into effect, The US economy is likely to experience a recession sooner than otherwise would have been the case, higher inflation, and extensive dislocation.”

    Howard·28:17
• $TLT - Concerns about reduced foreign demand for US Treasuries due to fiscal management concerns and political factors.

  • “Might other countries become less willing to buy US treasuries? Might they conclude that our fiscal management is unreliable? Even if we remain the world's strongest credit, might they cut back on purchases out of worry, spite, or political motivation?”

    Howard·24:35