On Bubble Watch

Bearish

• $SPX— The S&P 500 is currently overvalued with a high PE ratio, historically indicating poor future returns.

  • “Today's PE ratio is clearly well into the top decile of observations. In that 27 year period, when people bought the s and p at price to earnings ratios in line with today's multiple of 22, they always earned 10 year returns between plus 2% and minus 2%.”

    Howard·30:16Hear it
• $MAGNIF7— The market may be overestimating the continued success of the top seven tech companies.

  • “The implicit presumption that the top seven companies will continue to be successful.”

    Howard·30:13Hear it
• $BTC— Bitcoin's rapid price increase suggests potential overvaluation and lack of caution.

  • “Regardless of its merit, the fact that its price rose 465% in the last 2 years doesn't suggest an overabundance of caution.”

    Howard·30:16Hear it
• $TECH— Current tech leaders may not maintain their dominance indefinitely, as historical examples show.

  • “Leading lights of 1969 that are missing from the S and P 500 today include Xerox, Kodak, Polaroid, Avon, Burrows, Digital Equipment, and my favorite, Simplicity Pattern.”

    Howard·24:18Hear it

Not investment advice.