Bitcoin's Price Dropped After Iran's Attack on Israel. Is ‘Uptober’ Canceled? - Ep. 713
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I think these geopolitical risk events, very short term in nature. And they only usually at least historically, they have a
very short term effect, which is why I think it's rather a buying opportunity. Hi, everyone. Welcome to Unchained, your no hype resource for all things crypto. I'm your host, Laura Shin, author of the Cryptopians. I started coming crypto 9 years ago, and as the senior editor Forbes was the 1st mainstream reporter to cover cryptocurrency full time. This is the October 4th, 2024 episode of Unchained. FBTC is the fastest growing omnichain BTC asset this summer. Join FBTC points inspired campaign where you can hold FBTC to earn perks, lucrative yields, and token drops all on your Bitcoin. Polkadot
you so much, and happy to be on the show, Laura. Thank you.
The crypto or more specifically Bitcoin community came into October chanting the phrase October based on how previous Octobers have tended to be quite positive for Bitcoin. However, that was before Iran launched 200 ballistic missiles toward Israel on Tuesday, and that is an escalation of tension in the Middle East. Our hearts go out to all of those affected. We definitely saw some people on crypto Twitter who were personally affected by this. However, obviously, this is a crypto podcast, so we will be focused on a very narrow aspect of this geopolitical situation, and that is to see what take
Yes. I think after or during the attack, you could already see that there was some kind of safe haven flow. Right? Flow into gold. So gold was pushed up and Bitcoin sold off, which was somewhat unexpected. Right? Because as you as you mentioned, everyone was expecting October. Right? So I think sentiment going into this geopolitical escalation was relatively high. And, we also saw this in our crypto asset sentiment index that we calculate in house. In fact, we we've been at the highest level of sentiment since March 2024, right? When we reached the latest all time high. And so I think any kind
Yeah, go ahead, explain that.
So looking at past geopolitical risk events, right, such as, I mean, the the Iran Israel conflict is one of these. Right? So geopolitical risk events, I mean, how do you measure measure them. Right? But there are ways to measure them, such as the geopolitical risk index. Right? By Matteo Anello. I can't pronounce his name because so I think it's a Italian name, but so he came up with a methodology to measure geopolitical risk events or periods of heat, heat and geopolitical risk. And he came up with a methodology based on news. Right? It's essentially a news count of stories related to geopoli
Yeah. And just for the audience to know, he's referencing a report that he published in July called Bitcoin as a safe haven hedging against geopolitical risks.
Exactly. And yeah. So what we did there was we looked at these top 20 major geopolitical events, and then Bitcoin performed relatively positive. On average, it performed very positive. I mean, if you take any kind of random window. Right? Performance window. Any kind of random window, a 100 day window for instance. And you plot like the average performance across these random windows, you always get an upward trend. Right? But we even factored this in and subtract this kind of average, random average across, like, random 100 day windows. And still, like, even factoring this in that Bitcoin ess
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