Bits + Bips: Bitcoin Hits $75K as It Starts Catching Up to Gold

Bullish:

• $BTC - Bitcoin showing strength amid geopolitical tensions, with short gold/long Bitcoin trade gaining traction and BTC-to-gold ratio bottoming.

  • “I've really noticed that crypto has stayed very, very strong. I'd love to get your take, Ram and Austin, but it's really doing well. I called around to the trading desk before I got on. A lot of talk around the short gold long Bitcoin trade”

    Chris·15:15

  • “Real politic, trust is breaking down. Where do you go? Because real assets, commodity are going to be in focus. That brings you to things like Bitcoin, ETH and the rest of the crypto environment.”

    Chris·15:36

  • “it feels like crypto is starting to it feels like it's bottomed and it feels like it's it's well positioned”

    Chris·15:53

  • “I still think that there's opportunity here in the crypto side because to your point, with the dollar decoupling, a lot of sovereigns bought gold. And when they bought gold, gold went way up and Bitcoin didn't move. And then the Bitcoin Maxis are like, oh no, my store value. What happened? Like, this whole digital gold narrative is breaking down, right, when it never did. And now that things are settling, they're like, Wait a second. Now Bitcoin is starting to get a bid. The BTC to gold ratio is coming back.”

    Chris·33:36
• $ETH - Ethereum outperforming as institutional crypto market develops, with investors starting to understand its unique value proposition as infrastructure, tech company, and yield-generating asset.

  • “we're seeing of of all the darlings, ETH is material outperforming”

    Chris·32:29

  • “On the East Side, it's just, again, the fundamentals of an institutional crypto market with a delightfully weird asset. It's infrastructure. It's a tech company and it pays yield and it's ultrasound money. They're starting to get their head around it a little bit. And so I I do think that that that's that's gonna be the tailwind on on the East Side going forward.”

    Chris·34:10

Bearish:

• $DKNG - DraftKings down 30% in three months as prediction market enterprise value creation is overhyped despite usage growth.

  • “I'm bullish on usage and adoption. Was always a fan of the Iowa electronic markets to track the presidential campaigns. It was the only legal market for decades. But I'm bearish on enterprise value creation here. DraftKings is down 30% in the last three months.”

    Ram·10:04
• $GENI - Genius Sports down 50% as prediction market companies face intense competition and bubble valuations.

  • “Genius Sports is down 50%.”

    Ram·10:22

  • “So these private market companies are even more expensive than that. Now they're getting competition from all corners, including NASDAQ that wants to show up, like the high school kid that shows up to the playground and takes the marbles from the small kid.”

    Ram·10:29

  • “So I think in general, private venture capital is a bubble. Prediction markets are in a bubble too, and you should try to sell the stock if you can.”

    Ram·10:44
• $CAT - Caterpillar trading at bubble valuations of 30-35x PE as industrials sector has popped.

  • “I'm looking at industrials, which is a major component of the S and P and you've got names like Caterpillar and John Deere that are like thirty, thirty five times PE”

    Ram·30:27

  • “Industrials are a bubble. They're a bubble. It's not only a bubble. Bubbles are great. They're a great way to make money. You want to ride the bubble up and then get out when the bubble pops, but the bubble's also popped. We're on the right shoulder of the bubble.”

    Ram·30:43
• $DE - John Deere at bubble valuations of 30-35x PE as industrials sector has already popped.

  • “you've got names like Caterpillar and John Deere that are like thirty, thirty five times PE”

    Ram·30:30

  • “Industrials are a bubble. They're a bubble. It's not only a bubble. Bubbles are great. They're a great way to make money. You want to ride the bubble up and then get out when the bubble pops, but the bubble's also popped. We're on the right shoulder of the bubble.”

    Ram·30:43