Bits + Bips: Bitcoin in Geopolitics, ETH’s Momentum, SOL ETFs & China’s Crypto Pivots? - Ep. 748
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The thing that I think is very constructive right now for Ethereum is is the chain being used. And so when you see fees increase like they have and fees are a function of 2 things. They're a function of activity. They're also a function of the price of ETH because that is the commodity or gas that's paid when transacting on chain. But when fees grow faster than the market cap or the price, then you've got a real signal that actual real activity, you know, above the inflation in the in the token price is actually increasing.
Hi, everyone. Welcome to Bits and Bits, exploring how crypto and macro collide 1 basis point at a time. I'm your host, James Safer, tradfire archmaester, lord of Bloomberg's End. Here with Ram Aluwalia, maester of wealth, leader of Lumida.
House Farconan. Good to see you. Also
joining us, Noelle Acheson, high seer and keeper of the crypto's macro now newsletter. Hi,
everyone. We're
here to discuss the latest stories in the worlds of crypto and macro. Just remember that nothing we say here is investment advice. Check on chaincrypto.com/bitsandbits for more disclosures. Today, we're also joined by Jamie Coutts, guardian of Real Vision's crypto legacy. Jamie, thanks for joining us. Why don't you, give us a little bit of background of who you are and what you're doing now, and, then we'll get into the topics of the day.
Hey, James. Thanks very much for having me. So I'm the chief crypto analyst at Real Vision. Real Vision's a platform started by Raoul Pal back in 2014, providing macro and digital assets insights. I joined from Bloomberg Intelligence where I was the crypto market analyst. I've got about 28 years of experience in traditional markets, predominantly in equities, but also in macro on the buy side as well. Honored to be here. Thank you.
Yeah. Jamie and I are our former colleagues, so it's good to good to be talking with him here today. As always, we're gonna start with, actually, I guess we don't always start with macro, but let's start with macro here because that's most relevant of the day. I mean, we had some pretty strong employment data. GDP looks projected pretty strongly. Rate cuts, the the chance of a rate cut, next week or in December have gone up. I think we're about 85% right now. Let's get into it. What what are you guys thinking as far as rates go? We can get into the dollars. Why why don't you start, Ram?
I'll be brief. There's no recessions. There's no evidence of recession. The Fed is committed to rate cuts through their forward guidance policy, which doesn't make any sense. And the markets recognize that there's no recession. So, you know, here we are. But I'd love to hear, Noah, your your take on this, and I can circle back to some of the momentum phenomena. I
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