Bits + Bips: Is Crypto the Only Asset That Works When Geopolitics Breaks Down?

Bullish:

• $BTC - Bitcoin showed resilience during geopolitical crisis and has crossed the Rubicon in terms of broader public consciousness, with growing interest from conservative investors.

  • “I think Bitcoin showed a lot of strength as did crypto. I think we were already part of that bottoming.”

    Chris·10:17

  • “Bitcoin came down, it showed a ton of resiliency. It feels like a very good setup for me.”

    Chris·10:37

  • “I do think Bitcoin has crossed the Rubicon in terms of broader public consciousness and understanding, which is a major accomplishment.”

    Ram·54:01
• $XLE - Energy sector is the leading performer with oil prices up due to Iran conflict, and US allies will control strategic oil chokepoints.

  • “energy leading sector in the market. So all sorts of sub industry groups within energy also like oil field services have done really well.”

    Ram·4:45

  • “XLE energy ETF is a top performer year to date.”

    Ram·5:31

  • “US allies will now control the Strait Of Hormuz, which is a nerve point to Chris's point for China. So the long term strategic benefits for The United States go up quite a bit.”

    Ram·14:34
• $STABLES - Stablecoins have clear product-market fit with growing interest from companies for payroll and international payments, providing real utility.

  • “when I talk to a lot of companies that are doing things like payroll, international wire business, like how do we just manage our, like, money, stablecoins are genuinely a topic of conversation from a curiosity standpoint now as well.”

    Austin·54:44

  • “If we're looking at the two things in crypto that so far to me definitely have product market fit, it's Bitcoin and Stablecoins.”

    Austin·54:59

  • “I would be shocked if Bitcoin and stablecoins are gone from the playing field like ten, twenty, 30.”

    Austin·55:19

Bearish:

• $QQQ - Tech sector showing weakness with QQQ down 7% YTD despite strong earnings, elevated valuations, and crowded positioning.

  • “QQQ is down 7% year to date. Nvidia reported blockbuster earnings and it sold off.”

    Ram·28:08

  • “Our evaluations are elevated versus free cash flow. The positioning, is still crowded, and we're we're seeing technical weakness in the leading themes in the market.”

    Ram·28:58
• $AMZN - Amazon's free cash flow yield is unsustainably low at 0.3% when it should be 2-3%, indicating overvaluation.

  • “I was just looking at Amazon's free cash flow yield. It's point 3%. Point 3%. It's incredibly low. That number should be two to 3%.”

    Ram·28:33
• $AILABS - AI labs are in a bubble with unsustainable valuations based on hype rather than reality, limited value capture potential.

  • “This is like insanity. This is insane stuff. You're not supposed to get billion dollar valuations on a not even a PowerPoint just because you were around the OpenAI hoop.”

    Ram·40:44

  • “I don't see the value capture. Look at like Palantir stock. I think that's a bubble deflating”

    Ram·32:55

  • “I don't see it for these LLMs, which are in a brutal war of attrition with each other.”

    Ram·33:03
• $PE - Private equity and private credit are getting destroyed in markets as they face mark-to-market reality versus AI storytelling.

  • “look at private equity and private credit. It's getting absolutely destroyed in the markets right now, and they're lending to software. They're subject to mark to market. That's they live in reality land.”

    Ram·42:08