Bits + Bips: What Happens to Markets Now That the U.S. Has Struck Iran?

Bullish:

• $STABLES - Stablecoins will see accelerated adoption with the Genius Act ensuring dollar-pegged dominance, positive for US reserve currency status.

  • “I'm much more optimistic, by the way, on stablecoins. I think the Genius Act was absolutely brilliant, absolutely incredibly important to ensure that the most liquid stablecoins going forward will be dollar pegged. Very positive for The U. S. As a reserve currency. The dollar is a reserve currency. And I think stablecoins will be the overall adoption is only going to accelerate.”

    Charles·37:23
• $GOOGL - Google will emerge as one of 2-3 national AI champions with incredible technology and resources to keep building.

  • “And ultimately, like post the internet bubble, what's going to emerge here through some of this somewhat painful correction will be two or three national champions. And Google, by the way, is absolutely one of them. They have incredible technology and they have the resources to keep building.”

    Charles·35:49
• $ENERGY - Venezuelan oil production coming online as part of US strategy, with bright outlook for Venezuela's energy sector.

  • “I think the outlook for Venezuela is incredibly bright. Whether you agree or disagree with what we did, there is no scenario in which the Venezuelan people would have been better off under Maduro. So I think the future from here on Venezuela is they have a guaranteed income stream, which is oil. The only question and only variable is how fast that income stream grows. I think it'll be faster than most estimates.”

    Charles·29:47

Bearish:

• $OPENAI - OpenAI's valuation is mathematically unsound, won't deliver on sales estimates, may need government backstop within 6-9 months.

  • “OpenAI does not have the most advanced or sophisticated technology. And I think ultimately when the CFO last year in November said they may need a government backstop or they would get one, I think that if necessary, the government would take an equity stake in OpenAI.”

    Charles·33:08

  • “But on OpenAI specifically, the math is just science fiction. There is no mathematically I'm willing to debate anyone. It'll either be proven right or wrong in the next six to nine months. Mathematically, OpenAI will not be able to deliver forget about earnings. They're not going to be able to deliver on sales estimates to justify the valuation at which they're raising capital today.”

    Charles·33:54
• $OIL - Oil prices heading to low 50s as US strategy brings Venezuelan, Iranian, and Russian supply online to address affordability.

  • “The Trump administration has had a very explicit and very clear strategy, energy policy, to bring the price of oil down into the low fifties. I think oil, once we get through what we do in Iran or don't do, but oil will be trading in the low 50s later this year.”

    Charles·28:17

  • “And part of that is bringing much more Venezuelan production on stream, ultimately getting to a new nuclear deal with Iran, either this government or a different one. Iran can export more oil legally and a ceasefire in Ukraine possibly by the end of this year, more Russian oil. The world is awash in oil.”

    Charles·28:32
• $BTC - Bitcoin doesn't trade on fundamentals, not a risk hedge or store of value, will remain speculative without real use cases.

  • “On crypto itself, look, where I've come out on this is where I always do, which is it doesn't trade on fundamentals. It is not a risk hedge. It's not an inflation hedge. It is not a store of value and it is not a medium of exchange. No one really buys anything with Bitcoin.”

    Charles·37:45

  • “These currencies do not trade on fundamentals. They have incredible moments of bullishness and then they have incredibly painful periods of correction. I don't know what it's gonna take to finally clear some of that out, but given the huge amount of retail and other often speculative money that drives these, especially the bull runs, I'm not very optimistic on the outcome.”

    Charles·38:03
• $AIINFRA - AI infrastructure correction coming that will be bigger and more painful than software, creating collateral damage.

  • “I think the AI infrastructure piece is next, is going to be bigger and more painful. Those are the two big themes that we're seeing from investors at the moment.”

    Charles·11:42

  • “I think the displacement trade, which is playing out now, is a little overdone, meaning people are just selling everything first and then trying to ask questions.”

    Charles·35:32