Bits + Bips: What Iran, Oil Shocks, and No Rate Cuts Mean for Crypto

Bullish:

• $BTC - Despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin has stabilized in the $60-70k range with institutional flows turning positive after months of outflows, suggesting a potential bottom.

  • “due to institutional flows kind of stabilizing us around that 60 ks region with ETF flows finally flipping positive after I believe three months of negative outflows that has helped us stabilize in this 60 to 70 ks region”

    Laurens·6:52

  • “we can see a lot of people are still betting on BTC going to 100 k over the next six months, especially the December options expiry is a very interesting one to watch”

    Laurens·12:11
• $STABLES - Stablecoins are seeing massive growth with $33 trillion in volume in 2025, and the infrastructure for stablecoin-based commerce and payments is rapidly expanding.

  • “People are focusing more and more on stablecoin chains. You have Paradigm and Tempo launching stuff, ARGUS launching their, Circle is launching their ARG blockchain, right?”

    Laurens·13:49

  • “in 2025, we saw 33,000,000,000,000 in in stablecoin volume. That was all done by humans or probably mostly done by humans. So it's very interesting to see how that is or very interesting to observe how that's going to grow as we see more agentic payments launch”

    Laurens·25:06

Bearish:

• $CRYPTOAI - The overall crypto market is struggling heavily with everything super correlated, liquidity down 40-50%, and volumes down 30%, indicating weak market conditions.

  • “I feel like the overall crypto market is struggling pretty heavily and and it everything is super correlated”

    Laurens·13:41

  • “If you look at market debt, it's down 40 to 50%, volumes are down 30%. And that all needs to increase in order for us to say like, oh, hey, actually, Bitcoin is a safe haven asset”

    Laurens·7:40

  • “liquidity has dropped from 25,000,000 on average at 1% from the mid price to 15,000,000 on average”

    Laurens·3:12