DEX in the City: How Prediction Markets Pose a National Security Risk
Episode publishedPodcast: UnchainedUnchained
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Hi, all, and welcome to Dex in the City where the wallets are cold and the takes are hot. First, we have Jesse, Web three prosecutor turned Web three protector at Rivet Capital along with V from the SEC to Web three. And I'm your host, KK, fluent in TradFi and conversant in deep tech over at StarkWare. Before we get going, as always, remember, we're lawyers, but we're not your lawyers. So nothing you hear on Decks in the City is legal or financial advice, and it doesn't create an attorney client relationship. For the fine print, check out unchainedcrypto.com. Before we continue in a particular
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Welcome back. So these days, it seems like you can't swing a dead cat without hitting a bunch of new prediction markets. I've always hated that expression. It's kind of creepy.
I've never heard that expression. Is that an expression? Very common expression. Dead cats. You can't swing a dead cat. Start an episode like that.
You swing a dead cat without hitting a bunch of lawyers who are good at the SEC, for example, but not the CFTC. Well, same goes for prediction markets. Yeah. Way to start the episode, Catherine. But the point is everybody's obsessed with prediction markets. Right? The market, the TradFi, the latest, was Nasdaq is actually filing for with a file with the SEC, for, to list prediction style binary options on its Nasdaq one hundred and Nasdaq one hundred micro indexes. So this is in many ways a good thing. Right? A lot of people are confused because sometimes prediction markets have nothing to do
I could rant about this one forever and there are a lot of avenues to take here, but I'm gonna try one that hasn't been bludgeoned by Twitter lately and over the weekend. But first, some facts to sort of lay out what's going on for those who haven't been following it minute by minute. So as we all know, there is a war going on in The Middle East, which started with an attack on Iran by The United States. Seventy one minutes before the world found out about The US striking Iran, someone went on a prediction market and placed half $1,000,000 on it. And the account name that placed that bet was M
The national security point is such a good one, Jesse. I wanna educate people about a couple things here. One, I mean, first, you alluded to this, what Kalshi's actions that they took. So they accused two users of insider trading, including an employee of, the really popular YouTube channel, mister beast, which my son is obsessed with, who was said to make trades on the content of his shows, the outcome of the shows. And Kalshi suspended and fined the two yearsers. And I know a bunch of people were really confused about that. Like, why is Kalshi doing this? And this is actually an important di
And what's even sorry to interrupt, but, like, what's even really more interesting about this is, like, the prediction markets are purported to be the single source of truth. I haven't seen that play out yet. I mean, you can just talk about what the percentages of an Iran stri
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