How Arthur Hayes Has Prepared His Portfolio for the Elections - Ep. 728
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Even if you believe that all coins are gonna perform well, it doesn't make sense to trade them on this short term basis based on your election prediction because if you get it wrong, you're gonna get smoked getting out of your trade. Whereas you get it wrong at Bitcoin, maybe you lose a few percentage points. So what? Right? You live to find another day.
Hi, everyone. Welcome to Unchained, your no hype resource for all things crypto. I'm your host, Laura Shin, author of the Cryptopians. I started here with crypto 9 years ago and as a senior editor of Forbes was the 1st major meter quarter to cover cryptocurrency full time. This is November 1, 2024 episode of Unchained. Polkadot is the original and leading layer 0 blockchain with over 2,000 plus developers. And the Polkadot 2.0 upgrade will be a massive accelerator for the ecosystem. Join the community atpogadot.network/ecosystem/community. FBTC is the fastest growing omnichain BTC asset this s
for having me. I
just wanna start this episode by noting that as in every episode, nothing we say here is investment advice, so do your own research. That said, we have Arthur here because people might be interested in how someone like him, meaning someone very well versed in both crypto and macro, would think about trading the election. So, Arthur, at the moment we're recording, the election isn't a week. Yeah. I should just let people know we're actually recording on a Tuesday. What are you anticipating broadly when it comes to how the election might affect the markets?
So I think doesn't really matter who wins, Trump or Harris. In the medium term, more money more money will get printed, and therefore, crypto should do well or will do well. The short term, obviously, the market really likes Trump because the things that Trump is saying and how he's going to print money and hand it out is what, you know, politicians in the United States have been saying since Reagan in the eighties, which is cut taxes, decrease regulation on businesses, and keep spending the same, if not increasing spending. So the rich people get tax breaks, and there's equities pumped, and e
Oh, wow. Interesting. Well, one question for you. What if it's sort of like a medium scenario where it's not decided right away, but maybe it takes, like, a week or two simply because, you know, there's, like, mail in ballots. There's, like, counting. There might be some a few recounts. But if it's, you know, not the kind of pandemonium you described, but just sort of, like, a longer term uncertainty that could last, I don't know, a week, 2 weeks, even a month, then what do you think?
I still think the market's so off. I still think right now, the market's a price for a a Trump victory, Republicans taking the house and the senate, and him raining down money on all the rich people. Right? So I think that's what the markets are priced for. They're not really a price for even if he does win all those things, if the Democrats and the people come out in the streets and they file challenges and Harris does not concede. Right? So it's funny. So at, at Maelstrom, I like to train the youngins in risk management and making decisions under uncertainty using, you know, implied probabil
Well, what what about this scenario where, like, even to this day, Trump won't say that he lost? I'm
pretty sure that on he conceded the election in 2020. He might have, after the fact, said, oh, there are all these things that happen, and maybe, you know, there are fake voters, or he insinuated that some of the things that his supporters were saying that entered the election
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