How to Trade Prediction Markets Without an Opinion on the Event - Ep. 979
Episode publishedPodcast: UnchainedUnchained
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Hi, everyone. Welcome to Unchained, your know how resource for all things crypto. I'm your host, Laura Shin. Thanks for joining this livestream. Before we get started, just a quick reminder, nothing you hear on Unchained is investment advice. The show is for informational and entertainment purposes only, and my guests and I may hold assets discussed in the show. For more disclosures, visit unchainedcrypto.com. Also, you'll notice something new in today's episode. Instead of our usual ad spots, we're introducing a different sponsored format. We interviewed our sponsor, Walrus, a project we actu
Maybe we'll we could put it into two categories. There's a very practical hands on problem with data, which is in this AI era, we need gigantic amounts of data. And not only do we need gigantic amounts of data, that data is then used to create even more data. So we are exponentially increasing the amount of data every single day. This is very expensive to store, and it's expensive not just in terms of money, but in computing power and time and speed. And then you have different types of data, so structured data, all well and good, especially when we're talking about a blockchain. But the more
Today's guest is Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research. Welcome, Marcus.
Hey, Laura. Thanks for having me.
Yeah. Excited to chat with you. So the prediction market space is really hot right now. The two biggest players, Polymarket and Kalshi, both have sky high valuations. They're intensely competitive with each other as I'm sure most people on X know, and that's probably only going to escalate now that they're newly competing on US turf with the entrance of Polymarket into this country. But Gemini, Robinhood, there are others who are also getting into the game. And at the same time, the category is facing some regulatory headwinds. So, you know, despite all that, none of that has stopped predictio
Yeah. So, of course, a you know, the interesting aspect is really that actually the volumes have increased, and the volumes are actually relatively constant now. I think we're trading actually around a billion dollars now per week, so that's quite elevated and it's almost like as when Bitcoin started to decline from, you know, 100, you know, 25,000, you know, that's when really the volumes and the activity started to increase. So the number of users actually increased from 70,000 to almost 250,000, again, per week. So these are actually really big numbers. A lot of people are involved, and of
And I just wanted to ask you about, well, what seemed like a connection that you made. You said that just as the price of Bitcoin was going down, that trading in prediction markets was going up. Are you implying there that some of the people who had been trading Bitcoin are now switching to trading in prediction markets? Or or, like, how would you figure that out?
I mean, it just I think it just seems a coincidence. I it would be really, you know, fast dredged that you have suddenly people, you know, turning their back on, you know, crypto exchanges and suddenly trading crypto or other trades really on on prediction markets. I think that's sort of like something that we try to look into, we try to figure out, but it's really not the case. And when we ask, for example, our subscribers, not too many are trading. I think a lot of people are interested in it, but also the volumes are not necessarily there. A lot of the contracts, lot of the bets are relativ
And, you know, out of curiosity, like, it sounds like you trade both. You trade the crypto markets and prediction markets. How woul
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