Why 2026 Is 'Too Chaotic' to Make Crypto Predictions
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Now with the regulatory burden easing on crypto, it's kind of put up or shut up. Like, we gotta deliver something here that, you know, the average person really wants to use.
Privacy is probably in a super trend. And I think that's just because, like, fundamentally privacy is important, and it never was not important. It was just like you ran the risk of going to jail to actually, like, support these projects and work on them and be an investor. That is
Hey, everyone. Happy New Year. Welcome to Unchained. You're now hype resource for all things crypto. I'm your host, Laura Shin. Thanks for joining this livestream. Before we get started, a quick reminder. Nothing new here on Unchained is investment advice. This show is for informational and entertainment purposes only. My guest and I may hold assets discussed on the show. For more disclosures, visit unchainedcrypto.com. Mantel is launching the Global Hackathon twenty twenty five to accelerate the future of real world assets. With a $150,000 prize pool, backing from a $4,000,000,000 treasury, a
Yeah. Hey, Laura. Hey. What's going on?
So I have been asking this question over and over again to multiple guests over multiple episodes, but I feel like when I ask it, it still elicits different answers from people. So I'm curious to know, do you guys think that the four year cycle is dead? Or do you think that we are headed into yet another bull year, I guess? Like 2025 was sort of mixed in terms of whether it was a bull year. But, you know, some people think that we're in this in going ahead into a prolonged bear market. So I'm curious. What do you guys think? Alex, why don't we start with you? Do you think 2026 will be a bull o
I actually think it's too chaotic to predict, frankly, and and refrain from making a Bitcoin price prediction for 2026 so far. I think the four year cycle's empirically broken. Bitcoin had, you know, gone up halving year subsequent year and the and the third year, the last two halvings. Right? And so now finishing '25 is a technically a not technically, literally a down year would theoretically invalidate that very simple design of this or understanding of this four year cycle. I look. I think one way to just summarize how chaotic the the investing landscape is is to look at options markets, w
Ryan, what about you?
Yeah. I think I think at this point, we can definitively say the four year cycle's dead. Some of the points Alex mentioned earlier, 2025, if if we were still believers in the four year cycle, would have been a a green year, and it was not for Bitcoin. Bitcoin also made a new all time high prior to the halvening. So I think I think we could definitely put to rest, like, this idea of the four year cycle. In terms of, like, where does that leave Bitcoin in 2026, I I tend to agree with Alex. I think it's gonna be very tough to predict. The one thing I I do feel comfortable kinda putting my throwin
Okay. Yeah. So let's talk about the macro bit because we are entering the year in a way where it definitely seems like that's going to play a big role. So, you know, before so before all this recent news about Venezuela and everything, you know, people were looking to the fact that the Fed is already back to quantitative easing, which tends to be correlated with bull markets and crypto. But, you know, obviously, like I just mentioned, we do have a lot of geopolitical events that could affect the macro environment. Obviously, the removal of Maduro is kind of just creating a lot of speculation a
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